By Khurram Zia Khan
Published in Dawn on July, 23, 2026
FOR decades, the world has linked rising population with pressure on resources. It is argued that food supplies will come under extreme strain if population growth is not controlled. As efforts to control population growth have borne fruit, many developed countries now have very low or even negative rates. Even India’s fertility rate has fallen below replacement level, although its population is still growing. Meanwhile, advances in medical science have increased life expectancy, leaving many countries with ageing populations.
Pakistan’s population, however, is growing rapidly. The 2023 census recorded 241.49 million people and an annual growth rate of 2.55 per cent, while current estimates place the population at around 259m. Is this a boon or a bane? Although many consider it a burden, Pakistan can become the world’s human-resource backbone by exporting skilled, technical talent through planning. During its first six decades, Pakistan had an opportunity to become one of the world’s food baskets. It had land, water, four seasons and skilled and unskilled labour, but inconsistent policies, interprovincial bickering and poor focus on value addition meant it missed the boat.
The Netherlands, a country much smaller than Pakistan, built a globally competitive dairy industry. Pakistan, despite being among the world’s largest milk producers, has little presence on the global dairy map. The loss to its agriculture sector is reflected in a statement by a UAE diplomat who said Pakistani mangoes sold in Dubai for $10 were resold for $120 after repackaging. This sums up how lack of value addition hurts exports. Pakistan currently exports food products worth around $7 billion annually — far less than its potential.
Pakistan may have missed the opportunity to become the world’s food basket, but it can still become a global human-resource hub. Its prosperity depends on consistent policies that take advantage of its youthful and talented population. Pakistan’s median age is around 21 years.
Pakistan must capitalise on its human resources.
According to the World Economic Forum, technological change, demographic shifts and other forces could create 170m jobs worldwide by 2030 while displacing 92m. Digital work is one area of strength for Pakistan, a significant freelancing market. International clients employ Pakistanis because they produce high-quality work at competitive rates.
Information technology is only one lane. The world also needs people in construction, healthcare, aviation, logistics and skilled trades. Countries such as the UK, Germany and Japan face serious labour shortages. Pakistan can take advantage by training workers according to the requirements, certification systems and language standards of these countries.
It is heartening that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have expanded skills-verification arrangements through the Takamol programme, enabling Pakistani workers to verify their competency and receive recognised certification for employment opportunities in the kingdom. Such initiatives are a move in the right direction, but Pakistan needs more agreements of this kind with European and Asian countries.
Europe remains a dream destination for many Pakistanis. Too many lose their lives and hard-earned money trying to reach it through the dunki route. Instead of losing them to smugglers, Pakistan should channel their ambition through state agreements, training and global branding.
Pakistan’s history is full of people moving abroad in search of better prospects through legal or illegal means. More than 700,000 Pakistanis went abroad for employment in 2025, while over 15m have registered for overseas employment since 1971. These figures reveal the scale of overseas interest. It is time for the government to develop mechanisms, ensuring those who are leaving are trained, documented and able to project a positive image of Pakistan.
Pakistan is often compared to India. Let us compete in global workplaces and boardrooms with the ambition that, in the next decade, more global technology companies and institutions are led by Pakistanis. In conversations with freelancers, international clients are said to prefer Pakistanis because they are flexible and available across time zones. Such strengths should be developed through better education, certification, communication skills and professional protections rather than left to individual effort.
Pakistan has already lost much of the opportunity offered by agriculture. It must not lose the opportunity offered by its human resources. The demographic window will not remain open forever as ageing countries increasingly turn to automation and artificial intelligence. It is time to act now, or Pakistan will lose another opportunity to put itself on the path of sustainable economic prosperity.
