Change of Base Year & its Impact on Key Economic Indicators

Government of Pakistan
Finance Division
Economic Adviser’s Wing

Subject: Change of Base Year & its Impact on Key Economic Indicators

Table-1: Impact of Re-basing on Macro-Economic Variables
Indicators	Fiscal Year 2021		% Change
	Base Year 2006	Base Year 2016
	Real Sector
GDP Size (current) (Rs mn)	47,709,325	55,488,010	16.3
GDP Size (current) ($ mn)	298,650	346,757	16.1
Per Capita Income ($)	1,542	1,666	8.0
Population	211.9	222.6	5.0
	Fiscal Sector
Total Revenue (Rs mn)	6,903,370	6,903,370
Total Revenue (% of GDP)	14.5	12.4	↓
Tax Revenue (Rs mn)	5,272,699	5,272,699
Tax Revenue (% of GDP)	11.1	9.5	↓
Total Expenditures (Rs mn)	10,306,691	10,306,691
Total Expenditures (% of GDP)	21.6	18.6	↓
Current Expenditures (Rs mn)	9,084,010	9,084,010
Current Expenditures (% of GDP)	19.0	16.4	↓
Fiscal Deficit (Rs mn)	3,403,321	3,403,321
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)	7.1	6.1	↓
Public Debt (Rs bn)	39,861	39,861
(% of GDP)	83.5	71.8	↓
Primary Balance (Rs mn)	-653,592	-653,592
Primary Balance (% of GDP)	-1.4	-1.2	↑

Table-1: Impact of Re-basing on Macro-Economic Variables
	External Sector		% Change
Export ($ mn)	25,630	25,630
Export (% of GDP)	8.6	7.4	↓
Import ($ mn)	53,818	53,818
Import (% of GDP)	18.0	15.5	↓
Remittances ($ mn)	29,370	29,370
Remittances (% of GDP)	9.8	8.5	↓
FDI ($ mn)	1,862	1,862
FDI (% of GDP)	0.6	0.5	↓
CAD ($ mn)	1,916	1,916
CAD (% of GDP)	0.64	0.55	↓

Table-2: Impact of Re-basing from 2005-06 to 2015-16 on GDP size and Growth
	FY 2021 (Nominal)			FY 2021 (Constant)
Indicators	Base Year 2006	Base Year 2016	Base Year 2006		Base Year 2016
GDP (Rs million)	47,709,325	55,488,010	13,036,381		36,489,871
Increase (%)		16.3% (1.16 times↑)			180% (2.8 times↑)

Table-3: Impact of Re-basing on Structure of GDP (%)
Percentage Shares
	FY 2020-21
Sectors	Base Year 2005-06	Base Year 2015-16
Agriculture	19.19	23.08
1. Crops	6.87	7.81
Important Crops	4.32	4.37
Other Crops	2.24	3.16
Cotton Ginning	0.31	0.28
2. Livestock	11.53	14.44
3. Forestry	0.40	0.49
4. Fishing	0.39	0.33
B. Industrial Sector	19.12	18.91
1. Mining & Quarrying	2.38	1.89
2. Manufacturing	12.79	12.02
Large Scale	9.73	8.88
Small Scale	2.12	1.93
Slaughtering	0.94	1.21
3. Electricity, Gas & Water Supply	1.35	2.32
4. Construction	2.61	2.68
Commodity Producing Sector (A+B)	38.32	41.99
C. Services Sector	61.68	58.01
1. Wholesale & Retail Trade	18.82	18.18
2. Transportation and Storage	12.18	10.45
3. Accommodation and Food Services*	NA	1.43
4. Information and Communication*	NA	2.48
5. Financial and Insurance Activities	3.72	1.93
6. Real Estate Activities	6.97	5.70
7. Public Administration (General Government Services)	8.21	5.01
8. Education*	NA	2.81
9. Human Health & Social Work*	NA	1.58
10. Other Private Services	11.77	8.45
GDP (A+B+C)	100.00	100.00

*: The Sub-Sectors of Services Sector are newly added components in Re-basing of National Accounts 2015-16.

Table-4: Impact of Re-basing on GDP Growth (%)
Sectors	Base Year 2005-06		Base Year 2015-16

	FY 2019-20 (R)*	FY 2020-21(P)	FY 2019-20 (F)	FY 2020-21(R)
Agriculture	3.31	2.77	3.91	3.48
Industry	-3.77	3.57	-5.84	7.79
Services	-0.55	4.43	-1.28	5.70
GDP	-0.47	3.94	-1.00	5.57

* R, P & F stand for Revised, Provisional and Final respectively.

Net metering fiasco