Change of Base Year & its Impact on Key Economic Indicators

Government of Pakistan
Finance Division
Economic Adviser’s Wing

 

Subject: Change of Base Year & its Impact on Key Economic Indicators

 

Table-1: Impact of Re-basing on Macro-Economic Variables    
  Indicators Fiscal Year 2021 % Change
Base Year 2006 Base Year 2016
Real Sector
GDP Size (current) (Rs mn) 47,709,325 55,488,010 16.3
GDP Size (current) ($ mn) 298,650 346,757 16.1
Per Capita Income ($) 1,542 1,666 8.0
Population 211.9 222.6 5.0
Fiscal Sector
Total Revenue (Rs mn) 6,903,370 6,903,370
Total Revenue (% of GDP) 14.5 12.4
Tax Revenue (Rs mn) 5,272,699 5,272,699
Tax Revenue (% of GDP) 11.1 9.5
Total Expenditures (Rs mn) 10,306,691 10,306,691
Total Expenditures (% of GDP) 21.6 18.6
Current Expenditures (Rs mn) 9,084,010 9,084,010
Current Expenditures (% of GDP) 19.0 16.4
Fiscal Deficit (Rs mn) 3,403,321 3,403,321
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 7.1 6.1
Public Debt (Rs bn) 39,861 39,861
 (% of GDP) 83.5 71.8
Primary Balance (Rs mn) -653,592 -653,592
Primary Balance (% of GDP) -1.4 -1.2

 

 

 

 

Table-1: Impact of Re-basing on Macro-Economic Variables
External Sector % Change
Export ($ mn) 25,630 25,630
Export (% of GDP) 8.6 7.4
Import ($ mn) 53,818 53,818
Import (% of GDP) 18.0 15.5
Remittances ($ mn) 29,370 29,370
Remittances (% of GDP) 9.8 8.5
FDI ($ mn) 1,862 1,862
FDI (% of GDP) 0.6 0.5
CAD ($ mn) 1,916 1,916
CAD (% of GDP) 0.64 0.55

 

 

Table-2: Impact of Re-basing from 2005-06 to 2015-16 on GDP size and Growth
FY 2021 (Nominal) FY 2021 (Constant)
Indicators Base Year

2006

Base Year

2016

Base Year

2006

Base Year

2016

GDP (Rs million) 47,709,325 55,488,010 13,036,381 36,489,871
Increase (%) 16.3%

(1.16 times↑)

180%

(2.8 times↑)

 

Table-3: Impact of Re-basing on Structure of GDP                                                           (%)
Percentage Shares
  FY 2020-21
Sectors Base Year 2005-06 Base Year 2015-16
Agriculture 19.19 23.08 
1. Crops 6.87 7.81
Important Crops 4.32 4.37
Other Crops 2.24 3.16
Cotton Ginning 0.31 0.28
2. Livestock 11.53 14.44
3. Forestry 0.40 0.49
4. Fishing 0.39 0.33
B. Industrial Sector 19.12 18.91 
1. Mining & Quarrying 2.38 1.89
2. Manufacturing 12.79 12.02
  Large Scale 9.73 8.88
  Small Scale 2.12 1.93
  Slaughtering 0.94 1.21
3.  Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 1.35 2.32
4. Construction 2.61 2.68
Commodity Producing Sector (A+B) 38.32 41.99 
C. Services Sector 61.68 58.01 
1. Wholesale & Retail Trade 18.82 18.18
2. Transportation and Storage 12.18 10.45
3. Accommodation and Food Services* NA 1.43
4. Information and Communication* NA 2.48
5. Financial and Insurance Activities 3.72 1.93
6. Real Estate Activities 6.97 5.70
7. Public Administration (General Government Services) 8.21 5.01
8. Education* NA 2.81
9. Human Health & Social Work* NA  1.58
10. Other Private Services 11.77  8.45
GDP (A+B+C) 100.00 100.00

*:  The Sub-Sectors of Services Sector are newly added components in Re-basing of National Accounts 2015-16.

 

Table-4: Impact of Re-basing on GDP Growth (%)
Sectors Base Year 2005-06 Base Year 2015-16
FY 2019-20 (R)* FY 2020-21(P) FY 2019-20 (F) FY 2020-21(R)
Agriculture 3.31 2.77 3.91 3.48
Industry -3.77 3.57 -5.84 7.79
Services -0.55 4.43 -1.28 5.70
GDP -0.47 3.94 -1.00 5.57

 

* R, P & F stand for Revised, Provisional and Final respectively.

 

 

 

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